Shell's Flawed Report: The 2025 Energy Security Scenarios

This is my off-the-cuff reaction to Shell's 2025 Energy Security Scenarios report, which was just released.

In my opinion, some of the assumptions are deeply flawed. As a result, this report paints an overly optimistic picture of the future.

Just my fast opinion. Feel free to disagree.

What they say: Fossil fuels as a share of primary energy demand is in decline

What I say: First of all, this chart paints an overly rosy picture by using relative measurements. In reality, total fossil fuel demand is likely to continue rising. While its true that other energy sources are taking an increasing share, the pace of growth has mainly been additive to total energy usage. Moreover, governments are preaching "drill baby drill" while withdrawing support for non-fossil fuel energy sources. As a result, I believe Shell's estimate for fossil fuel share of primary energy demand is way off.

What they say: Solar and wind capacity will continue growing rapidly

What I say: It will to a point. The limiting factors include resource availability and incentives. Building solar and windmills requires both fossil fuels, cement and numerous metals. It is a resource intensive process, which currently cannot be met by today's mining capabilities. I don't think we can achieve what this chart suggests unless we strip-mine half the planet. Also, as previously noted, some governments are turning away from solar/wind, cutting subsidies that previously encouraged growth.

What they say: We are near peak emissions and they will begin to drop rapidly.

What I say: I see no indication that emissions are peaking. The charts I look at show 2024 CO2 emissions as greater than 2023 emissions. In fact, atmospheric CO2 - which of course includes all sources, not just anthropogenic - is rising faster than ever (see soon to be extinct NOAA's chart below). Shell's fantastical chart fails to account for rising fossil fuel use and limits to solar/wind substitutes. It also incorporates another major hail Mary assumption...(see next point).

What they say: Carbon capture is the missing link. It's the plug variable that makes all these formulae work.

What I say: Yes, and magical fairies soon will give me the ability to fly. We're betting our future on a problematic technology. The forecast that emissions will rapidly decline not only requires us to strip mine the planet for resources that might not exist, it also relies on a technology that has so far failed.

What they say: The global temperature rise will be limited to about 2.2 degrees at worst.

What I say: Unfortunately, we've already broken through 1.5 degrees and it's only 2025. Remove assumptions about solar/wind and carbon capture technology and it's plain to see this chart underestimates the projected temperature rise. Worse, if you zoom in on the most recent observations in this chart, the divergence between reality and fantasy is already apparent. If recent trends continue, this chart will need to be compressed to end in 2035.

On another note, I'd like to thank everyone who has contributed to my efforts by subscribing, commenting and sharing. Knowing I have an audience that cares about the same things as me is what keeps me going. Your comments educate, encourage and entertain me, and I read every one.

I'd also like to thank those who have made a financial contribution, either via premium subscription or one-off donation. This helps with overhead costs and keeps the site free of advertising clutter and marketing nonsense. Thank you.