Our Violent Future

Maybe you're reading this on a bus. Or in your living room. Or at the office. Wherever you are, you probably feel safe and secure. Nobody around you is eyeing you up for your possessions. They're probably not thinking about killing you just because of who you are.

But eventually, your friends, neighbors, and even family will turn on you.

It's a repeated pattern throughout human history. When resources are scarce, power is consolidated, scapegoats are created and people turn on each other.

Let's clarify what I mean by "people", because that word often permits one to disassociate from a situation. The word "people" sounds like folks you see on the news or who live in another town.

In contrast, when I say "people", I mean humans who exist within your sphere, many of whom you know well.

Take a moment to let that sink in, because you must understand this point to appreciate how frightening the future could become. "People" means your friends, family and neighbors. It means you!

How could people you know and trust turn on you? To answer that you must first understand what humans are capable of and what holds these behaviors back.

The video below is of an interview with a mass murderer. It's easy to psychologically distance from him, as if he were a character from a fictional show. The horrifying reality, however, is that there are many people like this blending into society, their impulses restrained by the thin veneer of civilization.

The transition from a non-violent, civil individual to someone capable of violence can be influenced by a variety of factors. While some individuals may have latent tendencies that remain dormant until triggered, others can be driven to violence by external forces like societal breakdowns, traumatic events, or extreme stress.

Often, psychological, social, and environmental conditions combine to erode moral and ethical constraints, making violence a viable option where it once was unthinkable.

I'm not saying every 3rd person is itching to become a serial killer. But under the right circumstances - lack of food, cratering economy, fascist enablement - people can quickly become monsters. This has happened many times throughout history.

The French Revolution and the Reign of Terror

During the French Revolution (1789-1799), a period of intense social unrest, economic hardship, and political paranoia swept through France, leading to what became known as the Reign of Terror. Citizens, driven by fear and loyalty to the revolutionary cause, began turning on one another. Neighbors would often accuse each other of harboring anti-revolutionary sentiments, leading to public denunciations, trials, and executions.

These accusations were frequently motivated by personal grudges, social rivalries, or simply a desire to deflect suspicion away from oneself. As a result, thousands of people were executed via the guillotine, many of whom had been betrayed by friends, neighbors, and even family members.

The French Revolution offers a stark reminder of how quickly social cohesion can collapse under the weight of fear and political instability.

The Cultural Revolution in China

A similar pattern unfolded in China during Mao Zedong's Cultural Revolution (1966-1976), a period in which the Communist regime sought to purge capitalist and traditional elements from society. The government encouraged citizens, particularly the youth, to denounce anyone who was perceived as counter-revolutionary.

Neighbors, classmates, and coworkers were quick to accuse one another in a climate of paranoia. Often, these denunciations were not just politically motivated but were also fueled by personal rivalries or a desire to gain favor with the authorities.

The consequences were devastating: public humiliations, imprisonments, and executions became commonplace, and long-standing relationships within communities were irreparably broken.

The Rwandan Genocide

Perhaps one of the most chilling examples of neighbors turning against one another occurred during the Rwandan Genocide in 1994. Decades of ethnic tension between the Hutu majority and the Tutsi minority, exacerbated by economic pressures and political instability, exploded into mass violence. Hutu civilians were often pressured by militias and the government to kill their Tutsi neighbors. Lifelong friendships and familial ties were destroyed as people, motivated by fear, hatred, or economic incentives like the seizure of property, committed unspeakable acts of violence against one another.

Over 800,000 people, mostly Tutsis, were killed in just 100 days, with much of the violence carried out by neighbors wielding machetes and rudimentary weapons.

When we reached the roadblock, I found that the guy who was my gardener was the head in the roadblock and what they're telling that, “Tutsi here, Hutu here. If you know you are Tutsi, this side. If you know you are Hutu, this side.”

But then I started to ask myself, "What do I count myself? Do I go to my husband's side since I'm married to a Hutu? Maybe I had the right to stay on his side." But then immediately someone, one of the local people on the roadblock, came and pulled me, said, "Hey! You don't belong to that side if you're married to him — just here." So I was pulled to that side and they started up with a machete coming towards me. What I did, I raised up my hand and I said "Please, please don't kill me."

As I was putting my hands up, my gardener came, I can't remember whether this was a slasher or — it was something sharp because it cut my hand. And I fell down, and blood started shooting up, so my mother was trying to pull me up. They said — they hit her hard, she fell down, also, and the gardener came and said, "Okay, please," he pulled me up, said, "Leave her alone. I'm the one going to kill her because she was — I was digging for her and she was a very bad boss to me. She never paid me well. She never gave me food." In my mind, I thought I was going to be killed by him. He took us, like, my mother and other three ladies and took us aside on the other bush.

When we reached there, he got some leaves and bandaged my hand, and he told us, "Run! Run for your safety." And he apologized. He said, "Please, forgive me. This was the only way I could spare your lives.”

- Norah Bagarinka, Survivor

The Bosnian War

During the Bosnian War (1992-1995), following the collapse of Yugoslavia, ethnic tensions between Bosniaks (Muslims), Serbs (Orthodox Christians), and Croats (Catholics) erupted into a brutal civil war. Once-peaceful communities, where neighbors of different ethnicities had coexisted for generations, became battlegrounds.

Nationalist rhetoric and the violence of paramilitary groups led many to turn on their neighbors in fear or vengeance.

Ethnic cleansing campaigns ensued, with massacres, forced deportations, and sieges, such as the infamous siege of Sarajevo. The war left over 100,000 people dead and permanently altered the social fabric of Bosnia.

They had taken a middle-aged man and a woman out of one of the houses. And the woman was screaming. And the soldiers were screaming. And they were screaming at me not to take photographs. And some shots rang out and the man fell to the ground.

A few minutes later, they brought out another woman and then they shot her as well. And, and then things sort of calmed down for a bit, and then they brought out two more people, and they said “Look, look, he’s from Kosovo. He’s a fundamentalist.”

And he put his arms up and basically looked at me as if I was probably the only person that could save him, which, probably in his mind I was, but unfortunately there wasn’t really anything I could do.

They brought him to the headquarters and as I was standing there I heard a great crash, and I looked up and out of a second floor window, this man came flying out and landed at my feet. And amazingly, he survived the fall and they came over and they doused him with some water. They said something like, “This is to purify Muslim extremists,” as they doused him in the water. And they started kicking him and beating him and then dragged him back into the home.

I had to make sure there was a document, that there had to be evidence of this crime, of what was happening. And that, I think, gave me the courage to try—to take those photographs. I was shaking, for sure, when I was doing it because I realized how precarious everything was, but I really thought it was unbelievably important to be able to have the world see what happened. - Ron Haviv, Photojournalist

Many people turned in their neighbors to paramilitary groups or actively participated in ethnic cleansing campaigns. For example, in Srebrenica, where Bosnian Serb forces executed more than 8,000 Bosniak men and boys, some Bosnian Serbs assisted in identifying and rounding up their Muslim neighbors for execution. These betrayals were often driven by a mix of fear, ethnic loyalty, and survival instincts.

At the beginning of the war, it seemed as if the war and all it brought with it was impossible, that this wasn't really happening to us, and that everything would be resolved within a few days. We didn't even notice how we were drawn into the vortex of inter-ethnic hatred and how neighbors were no longer able to live beside each other, how death moved into the vicinity, and we didn't even notice that we had got used to it. In Bosnia, a neighbor means more than a relative. In Bosnia, having coffee with your neighbor is a ritual, and this is what we trampled on and forgot. And in this vortex of terrible misfortune and horror, the horror of Srebrenica happened.

I am here before Your Honors because I wish to express my remorse. I have thought for a long time, and I'm always followed by the same thought—guilt. I find it very hard to say this truth. I am to blame for everything I did at that time. I am trying to erase all this and to be what I was not at that time. I am also to blame for what I did not do, for not trying to protect those prisoners. Regardless of the temporary nature of my then-post, I ask myself again and again, “What could I have done that I didn't do?” Thousands of innocent victims perished. Graves remain behind, refugees, general destruction and misfortune and misery. I bear part of the responsibility for this. - Perpetrator, Dragan Obrenović

The Holodomor in Ukraine

During Joseph Stalin's forced collectivization of agriculture, Ukraine was devastated by a man-made famine known as the Holodomor (1932-1933). As the famine worsened and people grew increasingly desperate, neighbors turned against each other in a brutal fight for survival.

Reports of theft, hoarding, and even cannibalism emerged as communities crumbled under the weight of starvation.

In many cases, neighbors reported one another to Soviet authorities for alleged crimes like hiding grain or resisting collectivization. Those accused were often executed or sent to labor camps. The famine claimed millions of lives, further deepening divisions and eroding social trust.

The Partition of India

In 1947, the partition of British India into the independent states of India and Pakistan triggered mass violence between Hindus, Muslims, and Sikhs, particularly in the Punjab region. As religious tensions boiled over, neighbors who had lived together peacefully for generations began to turn on one another.

Communal violence erupted, with massacres, rapes, and forced migrations sweeping across the region. Millions of people were displaced, and up to 2 million were killed in one of the most tragic instances of social breakdown in modern history. The partition left deep scars on the communities that had once been integrated and relatively harmonious.

The Salem Witch Trials

Another historical instance of neighbors betraying one another can be found in the Salem Witch Trials of 1692. In the Puritan Massachusetts Bay Colony, religious extremism and economic instability fueled a wave of witchcraft accusations. Many of these accusations were rooted in personal vendettas and rivalries, as neighbors seized the opportunity to settle old scores or remove unwanted competition.

The result was a series of public trials, where individuals were convicted on flimsy evidence and hearsay. Twenty people were executed, and many others imprisoned, all based on accusations made by their fellow community members.

Post-Katrina New Orleans

A more recent example occurred in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans in 2005. In the chaotic days following the storm, as basic services collapsed and law enforcement struggled to maintain order, social bonds frayed. With food, water, and medical care in short supply, some neighbors turned on each other in a desperate bid for survival.

Incidents of looting and violence emerged, and trust between community members deteriorated rapidly. While many worked together to rebuild, Katrina revealed how quickly fear and resource scarcity can erode the bonds that hold societies together.

Factors Leading to Violence in Civil Society

There are several common precursors that frequently precede instances of neighbors turning against each other. These precursors typically involve a combination of psychological, social, political, and economic factors that erode the bonds of trust and community, replacing them with fear, suspicion, and desperation.

1. Economic Hardship and Resource Scarcity

One of the most common precursors to community conflict is economic hardship, which can lead triggered by resource scarcity.

When people face extreme deprivation—such as food shortages, unemployment, or loss of property—survival instincts can overshadow social bonds. In times of famine, economic collapse, or hyperinflation, competition for basic necessities like food, shelter, and security can lead to neighbors viewing each other as rivals rather than members of a shared community.

The erosion of trust in such situations can quickly escalate into violence or betrayal as people struggle to secure scarce resources for themselves and their families.

2. Political or Ideological Polarization

Another frequent precursor to neighbors turning on each other is the rise of extreme political or ideological polarization. When societies become deeply divided along political, ethnic, religious, or ideological lines, neighbors who once lived peacefully together can be encouraged to view each other as enemies. This is often exacerbated by leaders or media who stoke these divisions, dehumanizing certain groups and justifying violence against them.

A clear example of this can be seen in the Rwandan Genocide, where government propaganda and extremist Hutu leaders spread messages of ethnic hatred through radio broadcasts and public speeches. This incitement of violence made it easier for Hutu civilians to rationalize killing their Tutsi neighbors, despite years of coexistence.

Similarly, during the Bosnian War, nationalist rhetoric stirred up by political leaders turned formerly integrated communities into battlegrounds, as people committed violence based on ethnic identity.

3. State-Sponsored Repression and Fear

In totalitarian or authoritarian regimes, the government often uses fear as a tool to maintain control, encouraging citizens to denounce their neighbors for perceived disloyalty. When people are afraid that they themselves might become targets of the state, they may turn against their neighbors to protect themselves or gain favor with the authorities. This environment of fear, suspicion, and forced loyalty erodes trust within communities.

For example, during Stalin’s Great Purge in the Soviet Union, many people reported their neighbors to the secret police, often for minor or fabricated infractions. The fear of being labeled as "counter-revolutionary" or disloyal to the regime created a culture of paranoia, where turning on one’s neighbors became a survival strategy.

Similarly, in Mao Zedong’s Cultural Revolution, ordinary people were encouraged to accuse their neighbors of harboring anti-Communist sentiments, often leading to violent consequences.

4. Breakdown of Law and Order

When the institutions of law and order collapse or become ineffective, it can lead to chaos and a breakdown of social cohesion. In such situations, people may feel that the only way to protect themselves or their property is through violent means. Without a functioning legal system to resolve disputes or maintain order, individuals may resort to taking the law into their own hands, often turning on neighbors they see as threats or competitors.

After Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans, the breakdown of law enforcement and basic services led to a rise in violence and looting, with reports of neighbors defending their homes with guns or threatening those in need of help. The absence of order and the perception of a survival situation caused people to act out of fear and desperation, turning a natural disaster into a social crisis.

5. Longstanding Ethnic, Religious, or Social Tensions

Pre-existing ethnic, religious, or social tensions can lie dormant for years but may explode into violence during times of political upheaval, economic collapse, or war. When these tensions are exploited or manipulated by political leaders or extremist groups, it becomes easier for individuals to justify violence against people who were once their neighbors.

The Partition of India in 1947 provides a stark example. As British India was divided into Hindu-majority India and Muslim-majority Pakistan, longstanding religious tensions erupted into widespread violence.

Neighbors who had lived together for generations suddenly saw each other as enemies, leading to massacres, forced migrations, and betrayals. Similar dynamics were at play during the Yugoslav Wars of the 1990s, where ethnic tensions between Serbs, Croats, and Bosniaks escalated into acts of ethnic cleansing, with neighbors often directly participating in the violence.

6. Propaganda and Dehumanization

Communal violence and neighborly betrayal is often preceeded by propaganda to dehumanize certain groups. By portraying certain ethnic, religious, or political groups as inferior, dangerous, or traitorous, regimes and extremist movements can make it easier for ordinary people to turn against those groups, even when they are their neighbors.

Dehumanization breaks down the moral barriers that typically prevent violence against others.

This was a central tactic during the Holocaust, where Nazi propaganda portrayed Jews as subhuman and a threat to Aryan society. This allowed many non-Jewish citizens to rationalize reporting their Jewish neighbors to the Gestapo or participating in their deportation.

Similarly, during the Rwandan Genocide, Tutsis were repeatedly referred to as "cockroaches" in Hutu propaganda, making the mass killings easier for Hutu civilians to justify in their minds.

7. Fear for Personal Safety

Fear of personal safety or the safety of one’s family is a powerful motivator that can lead individuals to commit violence or betray their neighbors. When people feel that they or their loved ones are in immediate danger, they may act out of self-preservation, even if it means turning on people they know. Fear can be stoked by propaganda, rumors, or real violence occurring nearby, leading to a breakdown of trust and an increase in suspicion and betrayal.

Modern America is just as vulnerable as anywhere else. During the Red Scare, fear of Communism led to widespread suspicion, and many people denounced their neighbors as a way to protect themselves from being accused of disloyalty.

The Future is Violent

Human civilization is successful because we have rules and cooperate on a wide scale. The economy is built on trust and laws that we all agree to. Social norms shape behaviors.

Remove the legal and social contracts, destroy the incentives for peaceful cooperation and humans deconstruct into their primal elements.

As society collapses, it is likely our history of violence will repeat.

The groundwork is already being laid, with family and friends separated by party lines. The dehumanization of certain segments of the population is creating future targets.

Millions are already salivating at the potential opportunity for violence. Once food and money become scarce and with tacit government approval - or even explicit direction - countless more will join in.