5 Key Findings: 2024 Arctic Report Card
“Change will continue for decades to come, with extreme conditions now becoming the new norm.”
The Arctic Report Card 2024, edited by Twila A. Moon, Matthew L. Druckenmiller, and Richard L. Thoman, provides a comprehensive overview of the profound and rapid changes occurring in the Arctic. Released under NOAA’s guidance, this annual report highlights the accelerating impacts of climate change in the region, offering insights into global implications.
Below I've summarized the 5 key takeaways from this report:
1. The Arctic is Warming Rapidly and Unevenly
The Arctic’s warming trend continued at an alarming pace in 2024, with the region recording its second warmest year since 1900. Arctic surface air temperatures in 2024 were 1.20°C above the 1991-2020 mean.
Arctic amplification, the phenomenon where the region warms faster than the global average, is evident as the last nine years have been the warmest on record. Summer temperatures ranked the third warmest, while autumn and winter were the second and third warmest, respectively. An early August heatwave shattered temperature records across northern Canada and Alaska, with Deadhorse, Alaska, reaching 31.7°C and Inuvik, Northwest Territories, hitting 34.8°C.
The warming is reshaping seasonal cycles, destabilizing ecosystems, and introducing unprecedented variability. For example, while Eurasia experienced a longer snow season, central and eastern Arctic Canada saw their shortest snow seasons in 26 years. This uneven warming complicates predictions and planning, especially for communities dependent on stable seasonal patterns.
2. Sea Ice and Ocean Dynamics Are Transforming Ecosystems
Sea ice loss is reaching irreversible levels. The report warns that even with global emission reductions, long-term Arctic sea ice recovery is uncertain. Sea surface temperatures in August 2024 were 2-4°C above the 1991-2020 baseline in most Arctic Ocean regions.
Sea ice is in rapid decline, with the September 2024 minimum ranking as the sixth-lowest in the 45-year satellite record. The last 18 years have produced the lowest ice extents. As sea ice diminishes, ice-free Arctic Ocean regions are warming by 0.28°C per decade, disrupting marine ecosystems.
Marine ecosystems are struggling to adapt to these changes. Ice seals, for example, are experiencing dietary shifts as Arctic cod populations decline, replaced by warmer-water species like saffron cod. While seal populations remain healthy for now, these dietary changes suggest deeper ecological disruptions.
3. Carbon Sink to Carbon Source
The Arctic tundra has transitioned from a carbon sink to a net carbon source, a change driven by thawing permafrost and escalating wildfire activity. The shift to a net carbon source is likely permanent, adding an uncontrollable feedback loop to global climate dynamics.
Wildfires have become an annual crisis, with Arctic tundra emitting an average of 207 million tons of carbon annually since 2003. Methane, a potent greenhouse gas, also continues to be released from thawing permafrost, exacerbating the problem. Alaska recorded its second-warmest permafrost temperatures in 2024.
The role reversal of the Arctic tundra as a carbon source is one of the most alarming findings in the report. This tipping point demonstrates that the Arctic is not only a victim of climate change but also an active contributor to global warming.
4. Precipitation and Snow Patterns Are Shifting Dramatically
The Arctic is becoming wetter, with 2024 recording the wettest summer on record. The Arctic is transitioning from a snow-dominated system to a rain-dominated one, with profound impacts on hydrology and ecosystems.
Increased precipitation was most pronounced in Alaska, northern Canada, and Scandinavia, while other areas experienced below-average snowfall. Snow cover trends showed stark regional contrasts: Eurasia experienced a longer-than-average snow season due to delayed spring melting, while the snow season in central and eastern Arctic Canada was the shortest in 26 years. Over the past 15 years, snowmelt has occurred 1-2 weeks earlier than historical norms, disrupting ecosystems, river discharge patterns, and vegetation cycles.
This precipitation shift includes more rainfall in what were once predominantly snow-covered regions. The increasing frequency of rain-on-snow events creates hazardous conditions for wildlife, such as caribou, that rely on grazing through snow for food.
5. Ecosystems and Indigenous Knowledge Are Vital to Resilience
Arctic ecosystems are under severe stress as warming temperatures disrupt habitats. Migratory tundra caribou populations have declined by 65% in the past three decades, a result of habitat loss, changing snow and ice conditions, and increasing summer heat. For Indigenous communities, the decline of caribou threatens food security and cultural traditions. While some smaller herds in the western Arctic have stabilized, the larger inland herds are experiencing continued decline, with some at their lowest populations ever recorded.
Amid these challenges, Indigenous knowledge remains a cornerstone of adaptation. Programs like Angunasuktiit in Nunavut integrate traditional practices with scientific research, offering pathways to resilience. Indigenous hunters, described as “the Arctic’s original researchers,” contribute invaluable insights into the region’s rapid transformation.
Full report: 2024 Arctic Report Card
