17 Signs of Collapse

“How did you go bankrupt?"
Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.”
― Ernest Hemingway

To many, it's business as usual. However, those paying close attention see the early signs that civilization is at risk. It's happening. Right now in a neighborhood near you.

The signs cross geographic, economic, and social boundaries. Defining characteristics of industrialized society that were once taken for granted are now a barometer for collapse. It starts gradually.

To illustrate what's going on, I found numerous personal anecdotes from around the world. Below are 17 direct quotes demonstrating how civilization is under attack from all angles.

Individually, each issue might appear to be solvable. Collectively, these are the overwhelming symptoms that will bring humanity to its knees.

1) Infrastructure deteriorating

2) Florida citrus industry nearly destroyed

There is a fungus that is spreading and infecting groves across the state. Unfortunately, we have no way to kill the fungus. The only solution is to cut down all citrus trees within a certain radius of an infected tree. Many farmers are choosing to sell their farm rather than try to start all over.

(Former Florida citrus farmer.) The disease is called “citrus greening”, spread by the Asian citrus psyllid feeding on the tree. It takes roughly 2 years for an infected tree to show symptoms. By that time, it’s already too late. The disease slowly chokes off the tree from taking in nutrients, crippling it, causing heavy fruit drop and smaller fruit size, eventually killing the tree. The disease has no cure and has already wiped out over 90% of the industry in Florida.

This is having a huge impact on bees. Our last crop of orange blossom honey was only 10% of what we normally get. We lost more hives than we should have anywhere from 25-50% depending on location. This plus a lack of rain this year has been brutal.

3) Extraordinarily warm weather in Finland

67 days above 25 degree Celsius this year. We had 66 days in 2002. I don't know how far back we have to go to surpass 67. People are cheering on social media. Few want to think about what is actually happening.

4) Wildfire smoke in Sao Paulo, Brazil

Haven't seen a clear sky for I don't know how long. The air is filled with thick dust and haze from wildfires. Crops are failing left and right, driving prices on produce up. Rivers and streams running low and sometimes drying up. Farmers at our local market complain that their wells are running dry, and no matter how deep they bore, there's no water to be found. Humidity levels are currently below 10%. This is getting downright scary.

5) Rio Grande levees

The Rio Grande levees in El Paso's Upper Valley are old and need repair, and will fail in a major flood. The low lying suburbs in the Upper Valley were recently deemed to be in a FEMA flood plain.

6) Sunflowers in San Antonio, Texas

The sunflowers didn't grow this year. I normally have massive wild reseeding sunflowers in my backyard and have for over a decade. None grew this year, even with water sources. So I started looking on roadsides and other places they also typically grow. Nothing. They just.... didn't grow. It makes me very suspicious honestly. And fearful for the wildlife this winter who usually rely on the dead sunflower heads for food.

7) Unsustainable American childcare industry

The young childcare industry. Increased regulation to make facilities safer (a very good thing!) had the unintended consequence of increasing costs for owners. You now need more teachers who have training and certification, not to mention the patience and stamina to work with young kids all day. The pay is comparable to fast food without the benefits. Owners have to find a way to pay teachers enough to retain them while keeping costs down so parents can afford to send their kids. It's damn near impossible without an infusion of government investments.

8) No staff, no electricity

Without human intervention, your local energy grid is only about 6 to 24 hours away from complete collapse, depending on how greedy the utility company is in terms of automatic backups. The electricity grid will likely fail first and within hours. Other energy sources like city heat or natural gas will take longer because those rely less on active human inputs.

9) Unusual and unpredictable North Atlantic weather patterns

I'm a big weather nut - for several years now, I'm always glued to NOAA's updates every day as soon as hurricane season starts. Maybe more experienced or professional Met enthusiasts can correct me, but what's happening in the Atlantic right now is just downright insane. A record-low amount of activity as we're hitting peak season on a La Nina year is stumping everyone, but all that energy's gotta go somewhere - we've been seeing some gnarly thunderstorms in Central FL in the last few weeks alone that took us from drought levels to straight flooding. I sit right above a water table and my lawn is literally leaking water onto my road from the ground. Back to the Atlantic, by this time of year you usually see a pattern of potential hurricanes forming off the Main Development Region (MDR), with a number of factors like dust and shear generally giving everyone a good idea of where the activity will curve, whether it heads to the Gulf or out to the Bermudas. No such pattern this year. Sure we're getting a few disturbances here and there, but it doesn't even seem like they know where to go - the systems are meandering in the MDR before ultimately fizzling out. Our models are not able to keep up with how fast everything is changing, and that should scare everyone. What happens when a wrong forecast affects evac orders? Particularly for storms that can ramp up in intensity within a few hours?

10) The death of truth

Factual information on the Internet. There's a churn of AI created content that's being taken as fact, and used as the basis for new articles and content. Sifting through information to validate it is already too much effort for many and will only become more difficult.

11) Insect apocalypse

The food chain. I’m still amazed no one is talking about the fact that insect biomass has declined by ∼47% and abundance declined by ∼61.5% over the last 35  years. In some areas it’s measured 75% decline in a single generation. This “insect apocalypse” is…very bad. Don’t just take my word for it: "Indeed, most biologists agree that the world has entered its sixth mass extinction event, the first since the end of the Cretaceous Period 66 million y ago, when more than 80% of all species, including the nonavian dinosaurs, perished."

We are losing bees at an alarming rate. As far as important species go, they are top of the list. They are critical pollinators: they pollinate 70 of the around 100 crop species that feed 90% of the world. Bees are responsible for $30 billion a year in crops.

I was going to post the monarchs. Last year was the second lowest population in Mexico since they have been recording their winter numbers in the 80s. They were once in the millions every year. Last year was just over 120k. In 2020 their numbers were below 2k which was considered a collapse. Somehow they have rebounded. Their habitat has been destroyed by human development and farming. Do what you can and grow milkweed. I've been putting milkweed in my yard every year now and I see monarchs often. I fear the day that I no longer see them.

12) End of Midwest US grain production approaching

The Ogallala Aquifer. You know how Kansas and Nebraska are known for essentially being endless fields of wheat and corn? Well they do that by drilling wells to one of the world's largest aquifers deep under the Midwest. There isn't enough consistent rain fall in those areas for all those crops, so well water makes up the difference. But, we're draining it and it can't be replenished. Once it's drained, it's Dust Bowl 2.0 and no more large scale farming in the Midwest.

13) Hottest August ever in Spain

Surprising no-one, the Spanish meteorological agency announced a couple of days ago that this year was the hottest August the country has ever seen. They included a chart with fifty-plus year averages, and a linear trend line, but it was wildly clear that the trend line should be exponential. This week has finally dropped to a max of 32C/90F, for a bit at least. Before that, it had been 38C/100F for just about three months straight, with a charming three+ week stretch up at 43C/110F.

14) Rogue sniper in Kentucky

Many schools are shut down today because of the sniper on I-75. On Saturday, he shot several cars from an overpass, and 5 people are in critical condition, plus many, many other minor injuries from wrecks caused by the shooting. The suspect is still at large. He ran into a heavily wooded area, and the rural communities around here are terrified. He bought an AR and 1,000 rounds of ammo the day before of his attack. He is former military, 911 dispatch, and a survivalist, and they can't find him.

15) Shortsighted infrastructure repair

In Anaheim hills, CA, there are a bunch of wells that have to pump water out of the ground to prevent landslides. The system was build in the 90s after a big landside. It's run by the Santiago Geologic Hazard Abatement District. They collect about $260k from local homeowners in annual assessments, but the assessment will expire in 2025. They have tried to get the homeowners to vote for an extension s couple times but they always vote no. When the money runs out the pumping will stop and the landslides will start in the first wet year after that. These people with homes valued over a million dollars are risking them to save around a thousand dollars per year.

16) Imploding American education system

The education system. We have maybe 10 more years before a whole section of teachers retires, and then we’re absolutely screwed. 50% of teachers quit within the first 5 years, and that statistic is much higher for SPED teachers. We aren’t going to have anyone to work in the schools. Get ready for your kids to be “taught” by an online program with a person who babysits 50 kids at one time and has no training. It’s going to get bad fast, even faster in bad union states. And if you have a kid with a lot of support needs? Truly I don’t know what they’ll do. I work with that population and we currently are missing two teachers and 3 others are on emergency permits. It’s a huge problem and keeps getting worse because the pay is so bad that no one wants to work with these students. I went to the hospital on Friday from a bite from a student (truly a manifestation of his disability) who desperately needs a 2:1 but the district is making it impossible. I barely get to teach cause I’m putting out fires all day.

17) Underfunded criminal justice system (in UK and pretty much everywhere else)

For any non Brits passing through. The new gvt has had to announce it's releasing prisoners early because it's got no space for incoming suspects on remand and new convicts. The last gvt shut like half the courts, the remaining ones are falling apart and understaffed. There aren't enough judges so there's a two year backlog of serious cases. The junior end of the profession are so poorly paid they've been on strike repeatedly. And let's not forget the police have basically stopped investigating shoplifting and other smaller crimes. This after 14 years of the "law and order" party being in power. Thank goodness the former chief prosecutor is now prime minister so maybe there's a hope of fixing it.

What signs of collapse are you seeing?